Above seasonal temperatures and precipitation expected across southern Alberta this fall

Posted on September 11, 2026 by Sunny South News

By Kristine Jean
Sunny South News

Mother Nature appears to be cooperating for the most part across the region, in the coming weeks as farmers continue with the fall harvest. 

Marko Markovic, physical scientist with the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction at Environment and Climate Change Canada, shared some details on the long range weather forecast and what people can expect in terms of temperatures and precipitation this fall across Southern Alberta.   

He pointed to some expected warmer conditions in general, this fall.   

“Based on our seasonal forecast that was produced on Aug. 15, it is expected for Southern Alberta to have above normal temperatures this fall,” said Markovic, adding that with regards to seasonal forecasts, they can evaluate past climate in Alberta with the new seasonal forecast – that is calculated with the Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System. 

“So for Southern Alberta, we are predicting temperatures above normal for the fall, (for) September, October and November,” he said. 

Markovic is an expert on long range forecasts, which includes monthly and seasonal forecasts, and shared information regarding the seasonal forecast from mid-August, for Southern Alberta. 

He noted the warmer temperatures are partially due to the influence of a very large El Nino that’s being formed in the south-central Pacific Ocean this year, and pointed out the effects it could have in Alberta this fall.  

“They’re mild historically, but they are leaning towards being above normal,” said Markovic. “So when we have the Pacific Ocean (that’s) very warm, these temperatures can influence the overall season in Alberta, which is supposed to be above normal,” he added. 

In terms of precipitation, the current forecast for Southern Alberta shows the possibility for above normal precipitation for the southern region, but Markovic noted uncertainty with precipitation amounts two or three months in advance.  

“It’s not easy to forecast precipitation three months ahead, but we do expect it will be above normal precipitation for Southern Alberta this fall,” he said.  

Trevor Hadwen, Agroclimate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), also noted anticipated warmer temperatures across Alberta this fall and pointed to possible impacts from precipitation in the northern regions of the province. 

“The ECCC forecast point towards a warmer than normal with near normal precipitation throughout most agricultural areas of Canada,” said Hadwen, noting wetter than normal conditions in the northern prairie agricultural range. 

“Depending upon the timing of the precipitation, there is a risk across the northern prairies (that) excess moisture will result in challenges during harvest,” said Hadwen. “The most likely impact will be delays in harvest due to wet conditions, however, in regions that have seen significant precipitation through the late summer, additional rainfall could result in limited field access and abandoned crops in localized areas.”